On November 12, 2003, Lt. General Ricardo Sanchez, U.S. Military commander in Iraq held a press conference in Baghdad. During this conference, General Sanchez stated that the US had arrived at a “turning point” in the conflict with Iraqi resistance fighters. The General also said  “..we are going to win this battle, and this war… they cannot defeat us, and they know it. I am supremely confident of this reality.”

When General Sanchez assumed command five months before his press conference, attacks on American troops and civilian personnel averaged six a day. At the time of his conference, these attacks had increased to 30 to 35 a day. The number of wounded has been reliably reported, from German but not US sources, to be more than 10,000 since the end of hostilities and the officially acknowledged number of dead is in serious question. General Sanchez strongly denied any similarity with the Vietnam quagmire but he also said he was determined to “win the hearts and minds of” 25 million Iraqis.

This statement was a favorite of President Lyndon Johnson’s during the Vietnam debacle. Henceforth, all of our reportage of the military activities in Iraq will be under the heading of The Turning Point.

Several hours after the General’s press conference, Iraqi partisans shelled the General’s heavily defended compound with mortars.

On November 25, Paul Bremer, American Viceroy in Iraq, following a Washington conference with the President and his staff, issued his own fiercely upbeat assessment

— Far fewer Americans have been killed in guerrilla attacks in recent days, L. Paul Bremer III, the American administrator here, said Tuesday. Instead, he said, the insurgents have turned to killing other Iraqis.

"The security situation has changed," Mr. Bremer said during a news conference. "They have failed to intimidate the coalition. They have now begun a pattern of trying to intimidate innocent Iraqis."                     

Hours later, guerrillas fired mortars or rockets toward the walled compound where he and other American occupation authorities live and work but apparently missed and hit a building and a road nearby. From: New York Times, Nov. 25, 2003.

Here we have additional proof that we have indeed turned the corner and have succeeded in decisively thwarting the terrorist attacks committed by a very small handful of Saddam loyalists against the friendly, democratic rebuilders. Mr. Bremer also is correct: casualties have indeed dropped dramatically since the Iraqis are now surging towards a peaceful, democratic government. General Chavez and Procounsel Bremer are certainly visionaries: We have indeed turned the corner. Herewith are ongoing examples of how US forces are crushing Iraqi resistance on a daily basis.

As President Bush moves onward to another landslide election victory, he can point with growing pride to his many daily victories in liberated Iraq. His concern  for the welfare of America’s military is deeply moving. Here we have some sterling examples of the complete justification of our President’s enlightened policies:

54  US Military Deaths in Iran from 1 October  through 29 October , 2004

1

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Staff Sgt. Alan L. Rogers, 49, of Kearns, Utah, died Sept. 29 in Bagram, Afghanistan, of non-combat related injuries.  Rogers was assigned to the Army National Guard’s 1st Battalion, 211th Aviation Regiment, West Jordan, Utah.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Staff Sgt. Darren J. Cunningham, 40, of Groton, Mass., died Sept. 30 in Baghdad, Iraq, when his unit came under mortar attack.  Cunningham was assigned to the 89th Military Police Brigade, Fort Hood, Texas.

3

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Rodney A. Jones, 21, of Philadelphia, Penn., died Sept. 30 in Baghdad, Iraq, when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device exploded near his dismounted patrol.  Jones was assigned to 1st Battalion, 5th Infantry Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Allen Nolan, 38, of Marietta, Ohio, died Sept. 30 at Fort Sam Houston, Texas, of injuries sustained on Sept. 18 in Balad, Iraq, when his convoy vehicle struck an improvised explosive device and then came under small arms fire.  Nolan was assigned to the Army Reserve's 660th Transportation Company, Zanesville, Ohio.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Staff Sgt. Mike A. Dennie, 31, of Fayetteville, N.C., died Sept. 29 in Balad, Iraq, from injuries sustained on Sept. 22 in Baghdad, Iraq, when the driver of his military vehicle pulled off the road and lost control, causing it to roll over. Dennie was assigned to the 106th Finance Battalion from Kitzingen, Germany

4

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. Michael A. Uvanni, 27, of Rome, N.Y., died Oct.1 in Samarra, Iraq, he was conducting combat operations and was shot by a sniper.  Uvanni was assigned to the Army National Guard’s 2nd Battalion, 108th Infantry Regiment, Morrisonville, N.Y.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. Jack T. Hennessy, 21, of Naperville, Ill., died October 1st in Baghdad, Iraq, when his check point came under small arms fire.  Hennessy was assigned to 1st Battalion, 9th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. Russell L. Collier, 48, of Harrison, Ark., died October 3rd in Taji, Iraq. His unit was conducting traffic control operations when enemy forces attacked them using small arms fire.  Collier was assigned to 1st Battalion, 206th Field Artillery Regiment, Arkansas National Guard, Russellville, Ark.

5

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. Christopher S. Potts, 38, of Tiverton, R.I., died Oct. 3 in Taji, Iraq, as his unit was conducting traffic control operations and enemy forces attacked them using small arms fire.  Potts was assigned to the Army National Guard’s 1st Battalion, 103rd Field Artillery Regiment, Providence, R.I.

7

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Staff Sgt. James L. Pettaway Jr., 37, of Baltimore, Md., died Oct. 3 in Brooke Army Medical Center at Fort Sam Houston, Texas, of injuries sustained in Fallujah, Iraq, on Aug. 27 when he was involved in a motor vehicle accident. Pettaway was assigned to the Army Reserve’s 223rd Transportation Company, Norristown, Pa.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Staff Sgt. Richard L. Morgan Jr., 38, of St. Clairsville, Ohio, died Oct. 5 in Latfiyah, Iraq, of injuries sustained on Oct. 4 when an improvised explosive device detonated near his convoy vehicle.  Morgan was assigned to the Army Reserve’s 660th Transportation Company, Cadiz, Ohio.

8

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Jessica L. Cawvey, 21, of Normal, Ill., died Oct. 6 in Fallujah, Iraq, when an improvised explosive device detonated near her convoy vehicle. Cawvey was assigned to the Army’s National Guard’s 1544th Transportation Company, Paris, Ill.

10

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. Andrew W. Brown, 22, of Pleasant Mount, Penn., died October 8 in Baghdad, Iraq, of injuries sustained on October 1 when his patrol vehicle was struck by an improvised explosive device.  Brown was assigned to the Army's 1st Battalion, 509th Infantry, Fort Polk, La.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Staff Sgt. Michael S. Voss, 35, of Aberdeen, N.C., died October 8 near Tikrit, Iraq, when his convoy vehicle encountered an improvised explosive device and small arms fire.  Voss was assigned to the Army National Guard's 1st Battalion, 120th Infantry Regiment, Wilmington, N.C.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Marine who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Pfc. Andrew Halverson, 19, of Grant, Wis. died Oct 9 as result of enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq.   Halverson was assigned to 2nd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, I Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Pendleton, Calif.

11

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. PV2 Jeungjin Na Kim, 23, of Honolulu, Hawaii, died October 6 in Ar Ramadi, Iraq, when his patrol was attacked by enemy forces using small arms fire. Kim was assigned to the Army's 2nd Battalion, 17th Field Artillery, 2nd Infantry Division from Camp Hovey, Korea.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Pfc. James E. Prevete, 22, of Whitestone, N.Y., died October 10 in Habbaniya, Iraq, when his military vehicle encountered whiteout conditions and the driver apparently lost control of the vehicle.  Prevete was assigned to the Army's 1st Battalion, 506th Infantry Regiment, Camp Greaves, Korea.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Pvt. 2 Carson J. Ramsey, 22, of Winkelman, Ariz., died October 10 in Baghdad, Iraq, when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonated near his military vehicle.  Ramsey was assigned to the Army's 2nd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas.

12

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Morgen N. Jacobs, 20, of Santa Cruz, Calif., died Oct. 7 in Tikrit, Iraq, of injuries sustained in Aaliyah on Oct. 6 when an improvised explosive device detonated near his patrol vehicle.  Jacobs was assigned to the 1st Battalion, 18th Infantry Regiment, 1st Infantry Division, Schweinfurt, Germany.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Pfc. Aaron J. Rusin, 19, of Johnstown, Pa., died Oct. 11 in Baghdad, Iraq, of injuries sustained on Oct. 10 when his military vehicle came under fire from enemy forces.  Rusin was assigned to the 44th Engineer Battalion, 2nd Infantry Division, Camp Howze, Korea.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Staff Sgt. Michael L. Burbank, 34, of Bremerton, Wash., died Oct. 11 in Mosul, Iraq, when an improvised explosive device detonated near his Stryker military vehicle.  Burbank was assigned to the 1st Squadron, 14th Cavalry Regiment, Fort Lewis, Wash.

13

The Department of Defense announced today the death of two Soldiers supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom.  They died October 11 in Baghdad, Iraq, when two rockets impacted their camp.  Both were assigned to the Army’s Division Artillery, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas. Killed were: Sgt. Pamela G. Osbourne, 38, of Hollywood, Fla., Pfc. Anthony W. Monroe, 20, of Bismarck, N.D.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of two Marines who were supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Pfc. Oscar A. Martinez, 19, of North Lauderdale, Fla. Cpl. Ian T. Zook, 24, of Port St. Lucie, Fla. Both Marines died Oct. 12 as result of enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq.   Martinez was assigned to I Marine Expeditionary Force Headquarters Group, I Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Pendleton, Calif.  Zook was assigned to 1st Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, I Marine Expeditionary Force, Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms, Calif.

14

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Christopher A. Merville, 26, of Albuquerque, N.M., died October 12th in Baghdad, Iraq, when his unit came under enemy fire during combat operations.  Merville was assigned to 2nd Battalion, 17th Field Artillery, 2nd Infantry Division, Camp Hovey, Korea.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of three Marines, who were supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Lance Cpl. Daniel R. Wyatt, 22, of Calendonia, Wis., died on Oct. 12 due to enemy action in Babil Province, Iraq.  Wyatt was assigned to Marine Corps Reserve’s 2nd Battalion, 24th Marine Regiment, 4th Marine Division in Chicago, Ill. 2nd Lt. Paul M. Felsberg, 27, of West Palm Beach, Fla., and Lance Cpl. Victor A. Gonzalez, 19, of Watsonville, Calif., died on Oct. 13 as result of enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq.   They were assigned to 2nd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, I Marine Expeditionary Force of Camp Pendleton, Calif.

15

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Ronald W. Baker, 34, of Cabot, Ark., died October 13th in Landstuhl, Germany, of injuries sustained on October 7th in Taji, Iraq, when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonated near his patrol vehicle.  Baker was assigned to the 39th Support Battalion, Arkansas National Guard, Lonoke, Ark.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of two soldiers supporting Operation Enduring Freedom.  They died on October 14th, in Miam Do, Afghanistan when an improvised explosive device detonated near their dismounted patrol.  Both soldiers were assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 5th Infantry, 25th Infantry Division (Light), Schofield Barracks, Hawaii. Killed were: Staff Sgt. Brian S. Hobbs, 28, of Mesa, Ariz. Spc. Kyle Ka Eo Fernandez, 26, of Waipahu, Hawaii.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Jeremy F. Regnier, 22, of Littleton, N.H., died October 13 in Baghdad, Iraq, when an improvised explosive device detonated near his patrol. Regnier was assigned to the Army’s 4th Battalion, 5th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas.

16

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Marine who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Lance Cpl. Brian K. Schramm, 22, of Rochester, N.Y., died Oct. 15 as result of enemy action in Babil Province, Iraq.  Schramm was assigned to 2nd Assault Amphibian Battalion, 2nd Marine Division, II Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Lejeune, N.C.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Josiah H. Vandertulip, 21, of Irving, Texas, died Oct. 14 in Baghdad, Iraq, when his dismounted patrol came under enemy fire.  Vandertulip was assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 7th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Pvt. 2 David L. Waters, 19, of Auburn, Calif., died Oct. 14 in Baghdad, Iraq, when an improvised explosive device detonated near his convoy vehicle.  Waters was assigned to the Army's 2nd Battalion, 14th Infantry Regiment, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Drum, N.Y.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of two soldiers supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom.  They died on Oct. 13, in Mosul, Iraq, when an improvised explosive device detonated near their convoy vehicle. Killed were: Lt. Col. Mark P. Phelan, 44, of Green Lane, Pa.  Phelan was assigned to the Army Reserve's 416th Civil Affairs Battalion, Morristown, Pa. Maj. Charles R. Soltes, Jr., 36, of Irvine, Calif.  Soltes was assigned to the Army Reserve's 426th Civil Affairs Battalion, Upland, Calif.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Alan J. Burgess, 24, of Landaff, N.H., died Oct. 15 in Mosul, Iraq, when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonated near his patrol vehicle. Burgess was assigned to the Army National Guard's 2nd Battalion, 197th Field Artillery Brigade, Woodsville, N.H.

17

The Department of Defense announced today the death of three soldiers supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. They died in Baghdad, Iraq, when an improvised explosive device detonated near their patrol vehicle on Oct. 12.  The soldiers were assigned to the Army's 20th Engineer Battalion, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas. Capt. Dennis L. Pintor, 30, of Lima, Ohio, died on Oct. 12. Spc. Michael S. Weger, 30, of Rochester, N.Y., died on Oct. 12. Spc. Jaime Moreno, 28, of Round Lake Beach, Ill., died on Oct. 13 of injuries sustained on Oct. 12.

18

The Department of Defense announced today the death of two soldiers supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom.  They died on Oct. 16 in Baghdad, Iraq, when their OH-58D helicopter apparently collided with another OH-58D helicopter and crashed.  Both soldiers were assigned to the 1st Battalion, 25th Aviation, 25th Infantry Division (Light), Wheeler Army Air Field, Hawaii. Killed were: Capt. Christopher B. Johnson, 29, of Excelsior Springs, Mo. Chief Warrant Officer William I. Brennan, 36, of Bethlehem, Conn.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of two Soldiers supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom.  They died October 15 in Karabilah, Iraq, when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonated near their vehicle.  Both were assigned to the Army's 9th Psychological Operations Battalion, 4th Psychological Operations Group (Airborne) from Fort Bragg, N.C. Killed were: Sgt. Michael G. Owen, 31, of Phoenix, Ariz., Spc. Jonathan J. Santos, 22, of Whatcom, Wash.

21

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Spc. Andrew C. Ehrlich, 21, of Mesa, Ariz., died Oct. 18 in Muqdadiyah, Iraq, of non-combat related injuries. Ehrlich was assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 2nd Infantry Regiment, 1st Infantry Division, Vilseck, Germany.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Enduring Freedom. Cpl. William M. Amundson Jr., 21, of The Woodlands, Texas, died Oct. 19 in Afghanistan when the vehicle in which he was riding rolled over.  Amundson was assigned to the 3rd Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment, Fort Benning, Ga.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Marine who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. Douglas E. Bascom, 25, of Colorado Springs, Colo., died Oct. 20 as result of enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq.  Bascom, a member of the Individual Ready Reserves, was mobilized and assigned to 2nd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, I Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Pendleton, Calif.

22

The Department of Defense announced today the death of an airman who was supporting Operation Enduring Freedom. Airman 1st Class Jesse M. Samek, 21, of Rogers, Ark., died Oct. 21 from injuries he received when an Air Force HH-60 helicopter aircraft crashed during a medical evacuation mission in Afghanistan.  He was assigned to the 66th Rescue Squadron, Nellis Air Force Base, Nev.

23

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Marine who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Lance Cpl. Jonathan E. Gadsden, 21, of Charleston, S.C. died Oct. 22 at the James A. Haley Veterans' Hospital, Tampa, Fla., from injuries as a result of enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq on Aug. 21.   Gadsden was assigned to 1st Combat Engineer Battalion, 1st Marine Division, I Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Pendleton, Calif.

26

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Marine who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Lance Cpl. Richard P. Slocum, 19, of Saugus, Calif., died Oct 24 due a non-combat related vehicle accident near Abu Gharib, Iraq.  He was assigned to 1st Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment, 3rd Marine Division, III Marine Expeditionary Force, Marine Corps Base, Hawaii.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. Dennis J. Boles, 46, of Homosassa, Fla., died Oct. 24 in Camp Arifjan, Kuwait, when he was participating in a 10-mile road march and collapsed. Boles was assigned to the Army National Guard's 171st Aviation Battalion, Brooksville, Fla.

27

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a Marine who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Cpl. Brian Oliveira, 22, of Raynham, Mass., died Oct. 25 from injuries received from enemy action in Al Anbar Province, Iraq.   Oliveira was assigned to 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, I Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Pendleton, Calif.

29

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Staff Sgt. Jerome Lemon, 42, of North Charleston, S.C., died Oct. 27 in Balad, Iraq, when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonated near his military vehicle.  Lemon was assigned to the Army National Guard’s 1052nd Transportation Company, Kingstree, S.C.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Enduring Freedom. Cpl. Billy Gomez, 25, of Perris, Calif., died Oct.27 at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Landstuhl, Germany, from injuries sustained when his vehicle struck an improvised explosive device on Oct. 20 in Naka, Afghanistan. Gomez was assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 27th Infantry Regiment, 25th Infantry Division (Light), Schofield Barracks, Hawaii.

The Department of Defense announced today the death of a soldier who was supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom. Sgt. 1st Class Michael Battles Sr. 38, of San Antonio, Texas, died Oct. 28 in Baghdad, Iraq, when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonated near his checkpoint.  Battles was assigned to the 1st Battalion, 21st Field Artillery Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas

A total of 1,150 US Military Dead in Iraqi War to date. [October 24, 2004]

The U.S. military has lost at least 27 helicopters in Iraq since May 2003, most of them to hostile fire, according to the Brookings Institution

Addendum: Eight US marines killed in Iraq's Al-Anbar province: military

October 30, 2004

AFP

Eight US marines were killed and nine wounded in military operations in the restive western Al-Anbar province, said a US military statement, without providing further details.

"Eight Marines assigned to the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force were killed in action and nine others were wounded in action today while conducting increased security operations in the Al-Anbar province," said the statement without providing further details.

The flashpoint cities of Fallujah and Ramadi are in Al-Anbar.

The Coalition of the Willing: An accounting

United States
138,000

Britain
8,530

Albania
70

Australia
850

Azerbaijan
150

Bulgaria
455

Czech Rep.
92

Denmark
510

Dominican Rep.
300

El Salvador
360

Estonia
55

Georgia
150

Hungary
300

Italy
2,700

Japan
1,000

Kazakhstan
25

Latvia
120

Lithuania
105

Macedonia
28

Moldova
25

Mongolia
180

Netherlands
1,263

New Zealand
60

Nicaragua
115

Norway
150

Poland

2,400

Portugal
120

Romania
730

Singapore
200

Slovakia
105

South Korea
675 (3,000 on way)

Thailand
460

Tonga
44

Ukraine
1,700

The Coming War in the Gulf: A Weapons Analysis of the Iran-Russia-US strategic triangle

by Brian Harring

Note: In July of 2004, from a Russian source, we received a lengthy translation of a Chinese military appraisal document concerning massive U.S. Naval actions in both Asian and Persian Gulf waters. On October 11, we printed a warning from a White House correspondent concerning pending plans for a joint Israeli/US attack on Iran., selected excepts of which are printed here: October 10, 2004: “We are about to embark on another war

Yes, it has been decided and carefully planned. Who are we going to war with? Iran.

Thesis: Iran hates the United States and Israel. Iran has atomic weapons and missiles (the Shahab, courtesy of North Korean/Russian technicians) It can easily reach Tel Aviv. It can also reach US troop concentrations in Iraq. Israel is scared shitless. Their pressure groups have leaned on the White House, with a great deal of assistance from Cheney and the Neocons. The actual plan is this:

The U.S. has no troops available for an Iranian adventure and the Israelis would rather not lose any warm bodies so…it has been firmly decided that both Israel and the U.S. will launch a surprise attack against 1., Iranian missile sites, 2. Iranian nuclear facilities and 3. the leadership of Iran located in and around Tehran. How will this be done? By aircraft attack using U.S. developed “smart bombs” and the so-called “bunker-buster” bombs designed to destroy underground reinforced concrete facilities .We just sent these to Israel. Because of the political ramifications, the Israelis will conduct the main strikes, supported by U.S. aircraft as needed. The aim will be to wipe out any vestige of nuclear weaponry, its delivery system and all the Iranian leaders capable of starting any attacks on Israel (mostly Tel Aviv…too many fellow Muslims in Jerusalem

the super carrier USS John F. Kennedy (CV 67) is now in the Persian Gulf along with the so-called  Essex Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) [31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) (SOC)] which consists of:: USS Essex (LHD 2) USS Juneau (LPD 10) USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) USS Mobile Bay (CG 53USS Hopper (DDG 70) USS Preble (DDG 88) The initial attacks will be an early-morning surprise attack launched to coincide with religious services in Tehran’s Muslim mosques with the idea of catching not only the leading Mullahs inside but a large number of their congregations as well. One attack will concentrate on these religious centers and the other will hit both the underground nuclear facilities and identified (courtesy of U.S. satellite shots) missile launching sites. The U.S. will supply observation and radio surveillance aircraft with radar-jamming capacities operating out of Turkey and Italy. The entire attack is scheduled to last no more than one hour with at least three waves of Israeli aircraft utilized. No warning will be given to the Iranians and no declaration of war.

Here are selected sections of the Chinese evaluation:

July 5, 2004

(Translation from the Chinese by M.V. Suslov)

“The United States Administration is launching a massive show of force in the Pacific Ocean near the PRC as a deliberate provocation to Beijing.

In an exercise codenamed Operation Summer Pulse 04, it is expected to arrange for an unprecedented seven aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs) to rendezvous in waters a safe distance away from the territorial waters of the PRC - but still within striking distance - after mid-July.

This will be the first time in US naval history that it sends seven of its 12 CSGs to just one region.

Almost 18,000 military personnel from seven nations will be engaged in combined and joint operations in the waters surrounding the Hawaiian Islands in June. The official American stated purpose of exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2004 is to improve multinational cooperation and interoperability between allies.

Forty now identified ships from the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Chile are testing their capabilities in a show of international presence, from a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the specialized technology of minesweepers. Seven submarines and 100 aircraft are also identified as being part of the month-long exercise, which will conclude July 27.

According to a report from the American Department of Defence delivered to Japanese naval command, Summer Pulse is to test out a new Fleet Response Plan (FRP) aimed at enhancing the American Navy's combat power and readiness in a time of crisis.

The FRP calls for the dispatching of six 'forward deployed' or 'ready to surge' CSGs to a trouble spot within 30 days, and an additional two within 90 days.

The signs point to a gathering of all seven CSGs in the Pacific.

The PRC’s analysis is that Summer Pulse is being mounted with it as the target audience, a suspicion reinforced by intelligence reports that Taiwanese forces are intended to join in the exercise.

Clearly, given Beijing's repeated warning that it will use force, as a last resort and whatever the cost, to stop Taiwanese independence, the US feels it needs to send Beijing a message.

From past deployment patterns, the US usually despatches one CSG to a trouble spot as a reminder of its presence.

It did so several times in the past when tension was high in the Taiwan Strait.

It sends two to indicate serious concern, as was the case when the PRC test-fired missiles over the strait in 1996.

In a combat situation, it deploys three to four, which was what it did in the Gulf War in the early 1990s and the recent Iraqi war.

But never before has it sent in peace time seven CSGs to the same theatre.

The implications for the PRC are grave.

The PRC can easily take on two CSGs, but there is no way it could face seven all at the same time.

This means that if the PRC has no choice but to wage war over Taiwan, it has to be able to land and seize control of the island within the first 30 days.

Otherwise, under the FRP, six CSGs may well arrive to join in the battle.

All this leaves the PRC with no choice but to start and end the war with lightning speed,

Politically, Summer Pulse is seen by military leadership of the PRC as naked intimidation.

This is gunboat diplomacy in the 21st century and forcefully remind the Chinese people of their century-long deep humiliation by Western powers - and put Sino-US relations at peril.”

Comment: A similar large carrier battle group is now in the process of taking up station in the Persian Gulf area. Herewith a translation of significant portions of a French report on the same subject but with a different perspective.

Current U.S. military moves

1. Two large American Naval task forces are being moved into positions in the Persian Gulf and East Asian theaters.

2. It is planned that these attack groups will be in place within 30 days and, if the American leadership wishes, be prepared to launch air and missile attacks against both Iran and North Korea.

3. Beijing now feels that this build-up of American and other naval strength in proximity to their coast is designed to threaten them but this material, leaked by American intelligence, is false and designed to prevent any preemptive North Korean strike against American military targets in both South Korea, Japan and Okinawa.

------------------------------------------

6. The Iranians are, by recent report, pushing up their nuclear program (as are the North Koreans) and American intelligence reports (CIA and DIA) show that both countries do possess atomic weaponry and, in at least a limited sense, the capacity to deliver these to regional targets.

-------------------------------------------

11. Preemptive strikes on the part of the United States are a strong probability. The current political situation in the United States is of such a negative nature that any such unilateral actions would have to be justified fully to the American public. The American administration has no respect for the UN and would have no hesitation to launch military strikes, with or without atomic weapons.

----------------------------------------------

21. Currently, all American military and civilian units in the Persian Gulf and the eastern Asian areas (South Korea, Japan and Okinawa) are to be given inoculations against both anthrax and smallpox. It is the belief of U.S. intelligence that these BW weapons are in the hands of both the North Koreans and the Iranians and that immediate vaccination of the abovementioned American personnel is imperative.”

Point and Counterpoint

The show of U.S. Naval force in the Pacific was a dual project. Firstly, it was designed to send a warning to North Korea that the United States could easily move naval units to within easy striking distance of their country and was an attempt to show that the use of land troops (now all in Iraq) was not necessary for an airborne attack on Pyongyang and various atomic sites. The second aspect of this show of force was aimed at the PRC because they have recently acquired a number of missile destroyers of the Sovremenny class. These new vessels are capable of launching the Russian 3M-82 Moskit cruise missiles, intended specifically for use against military vessels. These missiles are the so-called SS-N-22 ‘Sunburn’ missiles that are far superior to any weapon now in the U.S. arsenal and against which the U.S. has no effective defense.

The United States possesses the largest navy in the world and the once effective Soviet Navy is now mostly in mothballs or beyond recall for any kind of effective duty. However, the Russians have realized that the enormous expense of building and maintaining a navy to balance potential enemies can be completely minimized by developing relatively inexpensive weaponry to destroy the large, cumbersome and very expensive ships of other nations. In the Russo-Finnish War, a Finnish soldier with a bottle of gasoline could effectively destroy a Soviet tank and its crew. The same principle applies in this instance.

The Russian  SS-N-22.Sunburn, which technical journals and experts have termed the most  effective and lethal  anti-ship weapon extant., is far cheaper to produce than a fighter plane or a missile destroyer, cruiser or aircraft carrier.

The Russians have sold this Sunburn missile to a number of countries who feel that have reason to anticipate a military threat from the United States and  these sales of a highly of advanced  anti-ship technology has effectively restored a balance to the military scene. In point of fact, a battery of Sunburn missiles can easily sink the largest U.S. Navy aircraft carrier and, in effect, renders  a hitherto invincible weapon virtually useless against an enemy equipped with a weapon against which there is no effective defense.

3M80/Kh-41 MOSKIT [SS-N-22 'Sunburn']

The Moskit is a large supersonic anti-ship missile.  Designed by the Raduga Design Bureau, development of the Moskit began in the 1970s.  The Moskit entered Soviet military service in the 1980s aboard Sovremennyy-class guided missile destroyers and several classes of fast attack boats.  An air-launched version of the Moskit was first displayed in 1992, and Raduga also reportedly began designs for a surface-to-air variant. Neither variant had entered production as of April 2002. The Moskit's control system is manufactured by NPO Altair.  Missile assembly takes place at the Progress plant in Arsenyevo in Primorskiy Kray.

The Moskit is powered by a ramjet engine and has an estimated top speed of Mach 2.5.  It has a launch weight of 3,950kg and carries a payload of 300kg. The Moskit has a range of 120km (250km air-launched), but tests of the Moskit using a high trajectory showed the possibility of increasing its range to 300km.

Moskit Missile Characteristics   

The Sunburn missile has never seen use in combat but has been extensively field-tested by the Russians which probably explains why its fearsome capabilities are not more widely recognized. The Russians have been known to leak, via double agents, incorrect technical data to the US Defense Intelligence Agency. Other cruise missiles have been used, of course, on several occasions, and with devastating results. During the Falklands War, French-made Exocet missiles, fired from Argentine fighters, sunk the HMS Sheffield and another ship. And, in 1987, during the Iran-Iraq war, the USS Stark was nearly cut in half by a pair of Exocets while on patrol in the Persian Gulf. On that occasion US Aegis radar picked up the incoming Iraqi fighter (a French-made Mirage), and tracked its approach to within 50 miles. The radar also “saw” the Iraqi plane turn about and return to its base. But radar never detected the pilot launch his weapons. The sea-skimming Exocets came smoking in under radar and were only sighted by human eyes moments before they ripped into the Stark, crippling the ship and killing 37 US sailors.

Not only is the Sunburn much larger and faster, it has far greater range and a superior guidance system. Those who have witnessed its performance trials invariably come away stunned. According to one report, when the Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani visited Moscow in October 2001 he requested a test firing of the Sunburn, which the Russians were only too happy to arrange. So impressed was Ali Shamkhani that he placed an initial order for six of the missiles.

The Sunburn can deliver a 200-kiloton nuclear payload, or: a 750-pound conventional warhead, within a range of 100 miles, more than twice the range of the Exocet. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.1 speed (two times the speed of sound) with a flight pattern that hugs the deck and includes “violent end maneuvers” to elude enemy defenses. The missile was specifically designed to defeat the US Aegis radar defense system. Should a US Navy Phalanx point defense somehow manage to detect an incoming Sunburn missile, the system has only seconds to calculate a fire solution –– not enough time to take out the intruding missile. The US Phalanx defense employs a six-barreled gun that fires 3,000 depleted-uranium rounds a minute, but the gun must have precise coordinates to destroy an intruder “just in time.”

The Sunburn’s combined supersonic speed and payload size produce tremendous kinetic energy on impact, with devastating consequences for ship and crew. A single one of these missiles can sink a large warship, yet costs considerably less than a fighter jet. Although the Navy has been phasing out the older Phalanx defense system, its replacement, known as the Rolling Action Missile (RAM) has never been tested against the weapon it seems destined to one day face in combat.

The US Navy’s only plausible defense against a robust weapon like the Sunburn missile is to detect the enemy’s approach well ahead of time, whether destroyers, subs, or fighter-bombers, and defeat them before they can get in range and launch their deadly cargo. For this purpose US AWACs radar planes assigned to each naval battle group are kept aloft on a rotating schedule. The planes “see” everything within two hundred miles of the fleet, and are complemented with intelligence from orbiting satellites.

But US naval commanders operating in the Persian Gulf face serious challenges that are unique to the littoral, i.e., coastal, environment.  A glance at a map shows why: The Gulf is nothing but a large lake, with one narrow outlet, and most of its northern shore, i.e., Iran, consists of mountainous terrain that affords a commanding tactical advantage over ships operating in Gulf waters. The rugged northern shore makes for easy concealment of coastal defenses, such as mobile missile launchers, and also makes their detection problematic. Although it was not widely reported, the US actually lost the battle of the Scuds in the first Gulf War ––  termed “the great Scud hunt” –– and for similar reasons. Saddam Hussein’s mobile Scud launchers proved so difficult to detect and destroy –– over and over again the Iraqis fooled allied reconnaissance with decoys –– that during the course of Desert Storm the US was unable to confirm even a single kill. This proved such an embarrassment to the Pentagon, afterwards, that the unpleasant stats were buried in official reports. But the blunt fact is that the US failed to stop the Scud attacks. The launches continued until the last few days of the conflict. Luckily, the Scud’s inaccuracy made it an almost useless weapon. At one point General Norman Schwarzkopf quipped dismissively to the press that his soldiers had a greater chance of being struck by lightning in Georgia than by a Scud in Kuwait.

In recent years Israel upgraded its air force with a new fleet of long-range F-15 fighter-bombers, and even more recently took delivery of 5,000 bunker-buster bombs from the US –– weapons that many observers think are intended for use against Iran. (cf: see earlier report on this:  (5.IX.04)

The arming for war has been matched by threats. Israeli officials have declared repeatedly that they will not allow Iran to develop nuclear power, not even reactors to generate electricity for peaceful use. Their threats are particularly worrisome, because Israel has a long history of preemptive attacks on perceived enemies.

(OK)If the US and Israel attempt to launch a preemptive air strike against Iran as has been formulated and the Iranians, now  armed with Russian anti-ship missiles either launch their own preemptive strike or respond immediately to a joint U.S./Isreali strike, all U.S .naval units in the Gulf will be in very close range to the Sunburn missiles as well as the SS-NX-26 Yakhonts missiles (speed: Mach 2.9; range: 180 miles) deployed by the Iranians along the Gulf’s northern shore. There will be no area of the Persian Gulf that will be out of range of either of these missiles.

Anti-ship cruise missiles are not new, Nor have they yet determined the outcome in a conflict. But this is probably only because these weapons have never been deployed in sufficient numbers. At the time of the Falklands war the Argentine air force possessed only five Exocets, yet managed to sink two ships. With enough of them, the Argentineans might have sunk the entire British fleet, and won the war. Although we’ve never seen a massed attack of cruise missiles, this is exactly what the US Navy could face in the next war in the Gulf. Try and imagine it if you can: barrage after barrage of Exocet-class missiles, which the Iranians are known to possess in the hundreds, as well as the unstoppable Sunburn and Yakhonts: how many of the Russian anti-ship missiles has Putin already supplied to Iran? And: How many more are currently in the pipeline? In 2001 Jane’s Defense Weekly reported that Iran was attempting to acquire anti-ship missiles from Russia. Ominously, the same report also mentioned that the more advanced Yakhonts missile was “optimized for attacks against carrier task forces.” Apparently its guidance system is “able to distinguish an aircraft carrier from its escorts.” The numbers were not disclosed…

Armed with their Russian-supplied cruise missiles, the Iranians will close the lake’s only outlet, the strategic Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the trapped and dying Americans from help and rescue. The US fleet massing in the Indian Ocean will stand by helplessly, unable to enter the Gulf to assist the survivors or bring logistical support to the other US forces on duty in Iraq. Couple this with a major new ground offensive by the Iraqi insurgents, and, quite suddenly, the tables could turn against the Americans in Baghdad. As supplies and ammunition begin to run out, the status of US forces in the region will become precarious. The occupiers will become the besieged…

With enough anti-ship missiles, the Iranians can halt tanker traffic through Hormuz for weeks, even months. With the flow of oil from the Gulf curtailed, the price of a barrel of crude will skyrocket on the world market.